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European Journal of Heart Failure 2005 7(2):253-260; doi:10.1016/j.ejheart.2004.06.002
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© 2005 European Society of Cardiology

N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide is a more powerful predictor of mortality than endothelin-1, adrenomedullin and tumour necrosis factor-{alpha} in patients referred for consideration of cardiac transplantation

Roy S. Gardnera,*, Victor Chonga, Iain Mortonb and Theresa A. McDonaghc

a The Scottish Cardiopulmonary Transplant Unit, Glasgow Royal Infirmary UK
b Division of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, Western Infirmary Glasgow, UK
c Department of Cardiology, Royal Brompton Hospital London, UK

* Corresponding author. The Scottish Cardiopulmonary Transplant Unit, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, 10 Alexandra Parade, Glasgow G31 2ER, UK. Tel.: +44 141 943 2310; fax: +44 141 211 4950. E-mail address: rsgardner{at}doctors.org.uk


   Abstract

Background: The selection of patients for cardiac transplantation is notoriously difficult. We have demonstrated that N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a powerful predictor of mortality in advanced heart failure and is superior to the traditional markers of chronic heart failure (CHF) severity. However, the comparative prognostic power of endothelin-1 (Et-1), adrenomedullin (Adm) and tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-{alpha}) in this patient group is unknown.

Methods and results: We prospectively studied 150 consecutive patients with advanced CHF referred for consideration of cardiac transplantation. Blood samples for NT-proBNP, Et-1, Adm and TNF-{alpha} analysis were taken at recruitment and patients followed up for a median of 666 days. The primary endpoint of all-cause mortality was reached in 25 patients and the secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality or urgent cardiac transplantation in 29 patients. The median values for NT-proBNP, Et-1, Adm and TNF-{alpha} were 1494 pg/ml [interquartile range 530–3930], 0.39 fmol/ml [0.10–1.24], 94 pg/ml [54–207] and 2.0 pg/ml [0–18.5] respectively. The only univariate and multivariate predictor of all-cause mortality ({chi}2=26.95, p<0.0001), or the secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality or urgent transplantation ({chi}2=31.23, p<0.0001), was an NT-proBNP concentration above the median value.

Conclusion: A single measurement of NT-proBNP in patients with advanced CHF can help identify patients at the highest risk of death, and is a better prognostic marker than Et-1, Adm and TNF-{alpha}.

Key Words: Chronic heart failure • Prognosis • Neurohormones • Natriuretic peptides • Cardiac transplantation

Received April 12, 2004; Revised May 12, 2004; Accepted June 10, 2004


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